Which graduate programs are exposed under the new earnings rule?
This is exposure on the most recent snapshot, not a prediction. The rule fails a program only after two of three consecutive years below the line, and ED has not yet published the exact benchmark. We publish the whole curve so the number updates the moment ED sets it.
Exposure by benchmark
| Bachelor's-holder benchmark | Grad programs below | Share of grad programs with earnings |
|---|---|---|
| $45,000 | 256 | 2.0% |
| $50,000 | 555 | 4.4% |
| $55,000 (likely range) | 1,244 | 9.8% |
| $60,000 (likely range) | 2,389 | 18.8% |
| $62,000 (likely range) | 2,857 | 22.4% |
| $65,000 | 3,567 | 28.0% |
| $70,000 | 4,674 | 36.7% |
Grad-program four-year earnings run higher than undergraduate: median $79,722 (10th percentile $55,115, 75th $106,427). The high-school-graduate benchmark used for undergraduate programs is about $36,082; graduate programs are held to the higher bachelor's-holder line instead.
By credential (at an illustrative $60,000 benchmark)
| Credential | With reported earnings | Below benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Master's Degree | 10,318 | 2,233 |
| Doctoral Degree | 1,133 | 42 |
| First Professional Degree | 720 | 27 |
| Graduate/Professional Certificate | 443 | 62 |
| Post-baccalaureate Certificate | 117 | 25 |
Fields with the most exposed programs (below $60,000)
| Field of study | Programs below | Median earnings |
|---|---|---|
| Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods | 220 | $54,755 |
| Student Counseling and Personnel Services | 183 | $55,314 |
| Clinical, Counseling and Applied Psychology | 118 | $54,569 |
| Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Subject Areas | 114 | $55,865 |
| Mental and Social Health Services and Allied Professions | 114 | $55,052 |
| Special Education and Teaching | 111 | $55,280 |
| Music | 109 | $47,852 |
| Social Work | 93 | $57,587 |
| Curriculum and Instruction | 91 | $56,334 |
| Education, General | 84 | $55,345 |
| Educational Administration and Supervision | 81 | $56,068 |
| Sports, Kinesiology, and Physical Education/Fitness | 79 | $55,054 |
| Theological and Ministerial Studies | 56 | $53,541 |
| Fine and Studio Arts | 52 | $47,468 |
| Communication Disorders Sciences and Services | 49 | $56,783 |
These are the classic high-debt, modest-pay graduate fields: master's degrees in teaching, counseling, psychology, social work, and the arts.
Method and caveats
- Who is counted. Graduate programs (post-baccalaureate certificate, master's, doctoral, first-professional, and graduate certificate) with a reported four-year median earnings figure: 12,731 of 65,010. The rest are privacy-suppressed and never guessed.
- The benchmark. The rule compares graduate programs to the median earnings of a working bachelor's-degree holder aged 25 to 34. ED has not published the exact figure. Census and NCES put bachelor's-holder earnings for that age group at roughly $60,000 to $62,000 (full-time, year-round); the rule's broader 'working' population likely runs somewhat lower, so we show a $55,000 to $62,000 likely band and the full curve.
- The horizon. Earnings are median earnings in the fourth tax year after completing, the same measure the rule uses.
- Not a verdict. A program only loses Direct Loan eligibility after failing two of three consecutive years. This is exposure on one recent snapshot, an early-warning picture, not a list of programs that will lose funding.
Reproduce this: graduate rows of value_check.parquet (credential levels 4 to 8) with earnings_median_4yr below the benchmark. Script: pipeline/build_stats_exposure.py. Full method: methodology. Sources: U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard (release 2026-06-10); the final STATS / Earnings Accountability rule (Federal Register, 2026-07-01).